Skip to main content

Hey Investors, It's Time to Bank!


Dear Speculators,

It's a happy New year for Nigerian banks. After getting hammered for most of 2015 and early 2016, the NSE banking index is now up 22.42 percent year-to-date and up 29.62 percent in the past one year. Why the renewed interest in banks? How about increasing supply of foreign currencies to banks, higher than usual interest rate, higher earnings expectation following the economic recession but most importantly, grossly undervalued bank stocks

Currently most bank stocks are selling at a huge discount to book value even with the rapid stock price growth in the past year. The fall in the stock price of the banks was technically right reflecting the change in the economic fortunes of the country but fundamentally wrong in how low bearish investors were willing to sell these stocks.

At least now that investors are realising the value opportunity in banks, there is hope that in the not too distant future bank stocks will be trading closer to fair value. This stock play is Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management favourite because it has both momentum and value attached to this trade. My advice is get in and buy wisely. Not all banks are great value for money but most banks right now are an excellent addition to your portfolio. Happy Shopping!

Emeka Ucheaga
Managing Partner
Emeka Ucheaga Advisory

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

ECOWAS: The Silent Opportunity of a Weaker Naira

Dear Speculators, The catastrophic collapse in the value of Naira in 2016 has brought more bad news than good news to Nigeria. This has come at a time when currency manipulation in Japan, China and Switzerland to purposely erode the value of their currency in order to gain trade advantages has angered many foreign governments especially America. Britain was lucky to have had the Pound devalued by the financial markets in the aftermath of the Brexit to the delight of the Bank of England whom like many other Central Banks in the western world are now inflation seekers. But not Nigeria, we don't need a weaker Naira, at least not now. Unfortunately, the drastic fall in the oil price, current account deficit, lower foreign external reserves and withdrawal of foreign investments from Nigeria has dragged the Naira about 58% lower since its January levels at the interbank market. This has almost doubled the rate of inflation in the last one year as imported products make up a si...

Everything is Going Down in Nigeria Except Inflation

Dear Speculators, The wait is over, we anticipated bad news and we got it. Our fears have become reality, the economy has continued to back slide and Nigeria has officially tipped into a recession. Not that this surprises anyone though. Falling oil prices, dollar scarcity, exploding oil pipelines, massive labour retrenchment and import restrictions have all contributed their fair share to weaken growth in Nigeria's economy. However, the stock market arguably has had it worse than the general economy this year as the market is currently down about 3.8 percent against an economy contraction of 2.06 percent in the second quarter. A closer analysis of the stock market brings to light some intriguing statistics. The largest 49 companies in the stock market account for 97% of the total stock market capitalization. 41 companies of the 49 sell at an average of 22x earnings. Only 49 companies out of a total of 171 companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange are valued above ...

CBN: Understanding the Mind of the MPC

Dear Speculators, For the fifth time this year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria will seat to decide on new monetary policies to influence the general economy to achieve their policy objectives. These objectives can be broken into four macroeconomic goals; economic growth, full employment, price stability, and exchange rate stability. The main policy tool of the MPC is the monetary policy rate (MPR) which is the rate at which the CBN lends money to banks. Now it is almost impossible for the MPC to marry all the objectives by simply using interest rates. This is because while raising rates may favour the last two objectives, it is unfavourable to the first two objectives and vice versa. Understanding what drives each of these objectives is very important. Economic growth is achieved through an increase in productivity in the economy, either through technology or an increase in skilled labour. Even zero rates in America and Europe hasn't ...