Emeka Ucheaga Advisory

Dear Speculators, My rational nature constantly forces me to believe that other humans are alike and will deliberately take rational decisions at every opportune moment. However, the irrationality of some may bias the opinions of others which eventually lead to a rather nonsensical conclusion to a simple and clear event. We have learnt once again that the ideology which resonates best among the populist do not depend on the soundness of the message but how it aligns to their innate desires. Maybe I'm a sucker for the status quo or I'm more inclined to prefer certainty to uncertainty but we will have to wait and see the ensuing consequences to this shocking decision. I congratulate Donald Trump and his "deplorables". I hope for their sake they do not regret this decision in similar fashion as most Nigerians do with Buhari. Americans are smart?? We might have overstated their intelligence. The broad sentiments in the global markets may be negative as inve

Dear Speculators, The gloominess of the Nigerian economic outlook has significantly knocked down the prices of some financial assets but the real value of some of these assets have been mildly affected. While recounting the economic misfortune that has befallen the country in the last two years is inevitable, dwelling on the past is a perfect time wasting activity. Luckily, investment is forward looking and not regressive thinking. The past is a great indication of the future but not a mirror for prediction. The randomness of the world ensures that yesterday looks at least slightly different from tomorrow. And if we have learnt anything from the history books, it is that good things do not last forever and bad times always have an end. Life is by definition cyclical. The key questions to ask before buying or selling any financial asset is; will the current economic situation last forever? Will the inflation rate remain in double digits over the next 5 years? Will the Nai

Dear Speculators, Interest rates has been one of the main topics of business discussions in 2016, maybe even more popular than crude oil prices. While Americans and Europeans are wondering when interest rates will go up, Nigerians can't wait for rates to go down. Both regions can't seem to jump start their economies regardless of what the Monetary Policy Committee is doing. Perhaps the fault of the current economic crisis is less on the monetary policies of the Central Banks and more with the weakening fundamentals in the global economy. If rates were to go up before inflation in Europe, the economy could overheat and enter a recession but if rates were to go down in Nigeria, negative real yields would be unattractive to investors. The double digit rate of inflation in Nigeria is currently caused by an overshoot of the dollar price and harsh restrictions on capital outflows in the country. Both almost unavoidable problems given our current circumstances. Historical